The arrest and incarceration of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has dealt a “critical” blow against the Duterte dynasty, analysts say.
However, observers caution against counting out the powerful clan that ruled the Asian country from 2016 to 2022.
The Dutertes command a loyal mass base and they could mount a comeback, with Duterte’s daughter and current Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte possibly capturing the presidency in 2028.
That is, if Sara Duterte is not disqualified from holding public office because she may be convicted in her upcoming impeachment trial.
“This is a dangerous dynasty,” analyst and journalist Vergel Santos said about the Dutertes in a report by the South China Morning Post.
Santos that the battle between the Dutertes and the camp of Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is not over.
“It will only be over for the Dutertes when I see Sara unable to run in 2028,” Santos said.
Analyst Earl Parreño made the same reading about the fate of the Dutertes.
“I would not venture to say it’s game over,” Parreño said.
Parreño said that the Duterte camp would likely rally its supporters around the arrest and detention of Duterte as a case of political persecution.
It can be recalled that the former president was arrested in Manila on March 11, 2025 based on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Duterte was flown on the same day to The Hague, where he marked his 80th birthday on March 28.
He is facing charges of crimes of humanity before the ICC on account of his actions as mayor of Davao City and eventually as president of the Philippines.
If Duterte were to die in jail now, “he’ll be forgotten”, Parreño said.
But if Duterte dies closer to the 2028 presidential election, “Sara will win”.
The same South China Morning Post quoted Nuelle Duterte, a psychiatrist and estranged niece of the former president.
“Filipinos love the underdog – the inaapi,” Nuelle Duterte said.
Political strategist Ronald Llamas said in the South China Morning Post report that the Dutertes face a “critical moment”.
The Philippines will hold mid-term elections on May 12, 2025.
Among the posts up for grabs are 12 of the 24 seats in the Senate, which will constitute an impeachment court to try the articles of impeachment against Sara Duterte.
A three-fourths vote (16 votes) in the Senate is required to convict Sara Duterte and bar her from holding elective office.
The House of Representatives impeached Sara Duterte on February 5, 2025, with 215 lawmakers backing the impeachment.
The impeachment complaint outlined seven articles of impeachment, which include culpable violation of the Constitution, betrayal of public trust, graft and corruption, and other high crimes, such as bribery and conspiracy to commit murder against President Marcos.
The online news service BenarNews quoted Jean Franco, an analyst from the University of the Philippines, saying that the Dutertes will “do their best to win”.
“But the Marcos camp may actually still double the efforts to end or subdue the [Duterte] dynasty,” Franco said.
The Marcoses have a powerful motivation to vanquish the Dutertes.
“They’re also scared of the revenge of the Dutertes,” Franco said.
In another report by the Agence France Presse and published by the Manila Standar, Franco pinned the March 11, 2025 arrest of former president Duterte on the ongoing rift between the Dutertes and the Marcoes.
To recall, the two families combined to form the winning presidential and vice president ticket in the 2022 election.
“At the end of the day, (the arrest) would not have happened had there not been a rift between the two of them,” said Franco, assistant chair of the UP political science department.
The same Manila Standard report noted that no matter the outcome of the May 12, 2025 mid-term election, the vacuum left by former president Duterte may be impossible to replace by his family.
“My sense is that the charisma of the Dutertes is really largely because of the elder Duterte,” Franco said.
“I don’t think (Sara) or the sons (one a congressman, another the mayor of family stronghold Davao) actually inherited his brand, the charisma he has for their base,” Franco said.
By Carlito Pablo
