Immigrants could swing the results of the April 28, 2025 federal elections in Canada, but many are undecided how to vote.
A survey by the Toronto-based Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC) revealed that 16.8 percent of respondents haven’t made up their minds about which party will get their support.
An ICC media release noted that this ratio of undecided voters is “more than double the general population average”.
Winning the immigrant vote is crucial to elections in Canada.
The ethnic population represents a major voting block. The 2021 Census by Statistics Canada counted 8,361,505 foreign-born people in the country at the time.
This means that immigrants represent nearly a quarter or 23 percent of the population.
The same ICC survey showed that a substantial portion among those who have an idea about which party to support can still change their minds.
The survey asked this question: “How likely are you to change your intention to vote for the [Preferred Party] between now and election day on April 28th, 2025?”
Among the respondents, 15.3 percent said that they were “unsure”; 5.9 percent, “likely”; and 7.9 percent, “very likely”.
This means that a total of 29.1 percent could change their minds about which party will get their vote.
The same ICC survey of its network members also showed the voting preferences of new Canadians.
A total of 35.9 percent indicated that they will vote for the Liberal Party under Mark Carney.
Meanwhile, 28.6 percent said that they will support the Conservative Party of Canada under Pierre Poilievre.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Jagmeet Singh trailed far behind at 3.8 percent, and the Green Party of Canada co-led by Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pednault stood at just one percent.
The ICC media release dated April 8, 2025 noted that commitment among voters has “swung significantly, with one in three new Canadians having changed their voting preference in the past six months”.
The release indicated that survey participants are highly educated, with more than 80 percent holding a university degree.
In addition, most (over 70 percent) are employed full-time, and household incomes vary widely, with the largest group earning between $75,000 and $100,000 per year.
Daniel Bernhard is CEO of the ICC.
“These data are a snapshot of a highly-engaged and talented voting bloc,” Bernhard said in the release.
According to Statistics Canada, among immigrants in 2021, 1,328,240 came between 2016 and 2021.
The federal agency notes that these recent immigrants made up 15.9 percent of the immigrant population in 2021.
Statistics Canada also notes that the top three places of birth among immigrants living in Canada in 2021 were India, the Philippines, and China. Among recent immigrants in Canada or those who came between 2016 and 2021, they were India, the Philippines, and China.
Bernhard noted that “unlike many Canadians who have become attached to a specific party as a matter of personal identity, new Canadians are much more open to persuasion”.
The ICC release also provided a snapshot of the issues immigrants care for.
“Affordability, healthcare, and housing rank among the top issues driving voter priorities in the lead-up to the 2025 federal election, with Canada-US relations the eighth most important issue,” the ICC release stated.
Bernhard noted in the release that political parties should pay heed to these voter priorities.
“Parties that want to connect with this growing demographic of committed Canadians need to speak credibly on affordability, access to healthcare, and housing if they plan to retain this talent in Canada long term,” Bernhard said.
Bernhard noted that 92 percent of new Canadians intend to cast a ballot in the April 28 federal election.
“Immigrants are clearly focused on making ends meet and building a stable future,” Bernhard said.
