On May 12, some 68 million voters will cast their ballots in the 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines.
Up for grabs are more than 18,000 positions. These cover 12 senators, 254 district representatives, 63 party-list representatives, and 17,942 governors, provincial board members, mayors, and councillors. The exercise will also include parliamentary seats in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Mindanao.
For President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice-President Sara Duterte, the electoral contest represents a fight for their own political survival.
The results of this year’s midterm elections could shape the political landscape of the 2028 presidential elections. It may determine the fates of Marcos, also known as BBM after his initials, and Duterte, daughter of ex-president Rodrigo Duterte.
Marcos’s term ends in 2028, and Sara Duterte is a top contender for the presidency.
Allies in the 2022 national election that swept them to power, Marcos and Sara Duterte are now locked in a bitter political feud. The squabble has seen, among others, threats of assassinations against Marcos, and the disinterment of Marcos’s late father, former president Ferdinand Marcos Sr.
Lisandro Claudio is an associate professor of Southeast Asian Studies and an expert on Filipino affairs at the University of California in Berkeley. Prior to his appointment at Berkeley, he taught at the Ateneo de Manila University and De La Salle University.
In an analysis published on the online journal The Conversation, Claudio explained what the 2025 midterm elections mean for Marcos and Sara Duterte.
“This will be important for Marcos Jr., who needs to consolidate his power amid a feud with Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte, the previous occupant of the presidential palace who presided over a ruthless and bloody drugs crackdown. Though she ran as Marcos’ ally – vice presidents are elected separately – in 2022, the marriage of convenience quickly fell apart once it became clear that Marcos didn’t have Duterte in mind as his successor.
“A Marcos-dominated senate would increase the likelihood of a conviction should Duterte undergo an impeachment trial for alleged mismanagement of confidential funds.
“Not only would a conviction remove her from office, it would also bar her from running for president in 2028. And a restoration of vindictive Duterte power could mean trouble for the Marcoses – one of Asia’s most corrupt families, with many skeletons in its closet.
“Marcos Jr. must bury the Duterte dynasty while he still can. In a place like the Philippines, where voters are often asked to choose between the lesser of two evils, such a resolution would be welcome to many,” Claudio wrote.
Other analysts agree that the 2025 midterm election is a pivotal event for Marcos.
A report by the Manila-based newspaper BusinessWorld quoted Hansley A. Juliano, a political science instructor at the Ateneo de Manila University, about the importance of the elections.
“The Marcos Jr. administration could make 2025 a pivotal year if it could crowd out the Dutertes and reinforce its hold on the presidential bandwagon,” Juliano said.
BusinessWorld noted that incumbent presidents risk losing clout during midterm elections.
“The midterm elections are always a validation and an assessment of the incumbent administration,” Edmund S. Tayao, president of Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, said in the paper’s report.
BusinessWorld also quoted Maria Ela L. Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, saying the Marcos administration needs to show “strength” in the months leading up to the election.
“The administration has to show its strength as well as provide some level of satisfaction as far as people’s perspectives are concerned. It should not simply rely on patronage and ayuda (aid),” Atienza said. “There is growing discontent on the part of people even in surveys.”
Meanwhile, Manila Bulletin quoted former Bayan Muna Party-list Rep. Neri Colmenares about the deepening wedge between the camps of Marcos and Duterte.
Colmenares was commenting on a recent move by Marcos to reorganize the National Security Council (NSC), which included the removal of Vice President Duterte and past presidents, like Rodrigo Duterte.
Marcos said this was to ensure that the NSC was “capable of adapting to evolving challenges and opportunities both domestically and internationally”.
In a statement on January 5, 2025, Colmenares said the reorganization was not about national security, but rather about “political survival”.
“The removal of Vice President Sara Duterte and former presidents from the NSC clearly shows the widening rift between the Marcos and Duterte factions,” he said.
Colmenares is a member of the Makabayan Coalition, which is fielding senatorial candidates in 2025 midterm elections.
“Their removal may also indicate fears of a possible rift within the military establishment, which could have serious implications for the country’s stability,” added Colmenares, referring to the Dutertes.
In the Manila Bulletin report, Colmenares stressed that the worsening feud between Marcos and Duterte is proof that Philippine politics is a mere battleground for political dynasties amid widespread poverty and suffering among the Filipino people.
“Tumataas na ang lahat mula kuryente, gasolina, tubig pati SSS (Social Security System) tapos binaba pa ang budget para sa mga serbisyong panlipunan pero walang pake dito ang mga Marcos at Duterte,” Colmenares noted.
(The cost of everything is increasing including electricity, gasoline, water, and even the SSS, and yet the budget for social services has been reduced, but the Marcos and Duterte factions don’t seem to care.)
By Carlito Pablo
